Navigating the Shifting 能源 Landscape: Insights from IEA’s 《2023年世界能源展望 for Business Leaders

全世界都在向清洁能源过渡，而且势不可挡. 这不是“如果”的问题，而是“多快”的问题。, 越快越好，对我们大家都好.

——国际能源署执行干事法提赫·比罗尔

国际能源署(IEA)发布了备受期待的《《2023年世界能源展望本周, a comprehensive report that delves into the intricacies of the global energy system and documents the progress in the sector over the last three years. 在地缘政治紧张和能源市场脆弱的背景下, 今年的情景分析探讨了经济和能源消费的结构性转变, 哪些正在重塑世界如何满足日益增长的能源需求. 

在一个以中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧为特征的世界里, nations continue to grapple with energy security concerns that were triggered by last year’s global energy crisis. 《正规博彩十大网站排名》深入探讨了一系列不断演变的能源安全挑战, 在能源领域的各个方面提供战略见解和批判性分析, 预测到2050年.   

Let’s take a closer look at some of the key findings from this report and how they can impact business leaders. 

给商业领袖的要点 

1. 不断变化的化石燃料动态报告指出，所有的化石燃料(石油, 天然气和煤炭)将在2030年前达到峰值, 这是第一次在《正规博彩十大网站排名》的情景中预测会发生这种情况, 预示着能源格局的根本转变. 然而,, the IEA also warns that current demand for fossil fuels remains too high to align with the 1.巴黎协定中的5度目标. 
2. 峰值能源排放与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量预计将在2025年达到峰值, 没有额外的政策干预, 到2030年，化石燃料在全球能源供应中的份额预计将降至73%, 低于目前的80%左右. 相比之下, 国际能源署的净零情景路线图 要求到本十年末，这一比例降至60%左右. 你可参阅水务署的业务简介，了解更多有关零净排放的情况 在这里. 
3. 清洁能源投资: 的 main driver of change in the energy system will remain the deployment speed of renewables. 到2023年，全球对所有清洁能源技术的投资比2020年增长了40%. 清洁能源投资的增加, 特别是在太阳能光伏和电动汽车方面, 表明可持续技术的市场呈指数增长. 
4. 太阳能光伏增长目前，每天有超过10亿美元用于太阳能开发. 的 growth potential for solar PV is projected to account for over half of the anticipated 80% new power generation capacity through to 2030. 
5. 中国在能源趋势中的作用中国传统上一直是能源需求增长的主要推动力. 然而,, 因为中国在这十年经历了重大的经济转型和增长放缓, 该国的总能源需求将在2025年达到峰值. In 2022, it accounted for around half of global wind and solar additions and well over half of global electric vehicle (EV) sales. 
6. LNG出口项目国际能源署预测天然气市场的变化, 长期以来，人们一直担心安全问题和价格波动. 引进大量新的液化天然气(LNG)项目, 预计将于2025年开始部署, 预计到2030年将使全球液化天然气产能增加近45%, 缓解之前的供应担忧. 然而, 产能的激增也带来了供应过剩的可能性, given the deceleration in global gas demand growth since its “golden age” and rapid expansion witnessed in the 2010s. 
7. 负担能力和韧性: Areas that will need the most work as part of the transition include increasing resilience and deploying adequate capital into emerging markets. 2022年，各国政府花费了大约9000亿美元来保护消费者免受波动的燃料价格的影响. 以减少未来的成本, 必须大规模实施具有成本效益的清洁技术, 特别是对家庭而言, 社区, 以及在融资所需的前期投资方面面临挑战的国家. 
8. 电力安全随着世界转向更加电气化和可再生的能源系统, 确保电力供应安全是头等大事. 这就需要增加对强大的数字化电网的投资, 电池与需求响应措施的一体化短期灵活性, 并结合低排放技术来解决季节变化, 包括水电, 核能, 化石燃料与碳捕获和储存, 生物能源, 氢, 和氨. 
9. 2人班.4°C: 的 World 能源 Outlook concludes that current global energy commitments from policymakers are consistent with a projected temperature increase of 2.到2100年比工业化前水平高出4摄氏度, 远远超出了《正规博彩十大网站》的临界门槛. 

尽管展望中正规博彩十大网站了一些积极进展, 要使全球能源转型与2050年的净零排放保持一致，还有很多工作要做.  

为此，国际能源署提出了五个优先事项，也旨在支持COP28的谈判代表: 

1. 到2030年，世界各国政府需要同意将可再生能源容量增加两倍. 这是由苏丹·贾比尔(Sultan Al Jaber)担任的第二十八届联合国气候变化大会主席的优先事项 呼吁所有国家 to join the COP28 Pledge, endorsing the tripling of renewable capacity in his open 信 to parties. G20领导人已经这么做了 同意支持这一正规博彩十大网站全球可再生能源联盟成立 信, 获水务署支持, aims to reach 1000 business signatures to call on governments for a tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030. 如对本次活动有任何疑问，请联系 马里亚纳海因里希. 
2. 到2030年，全球能源效率的年增长率必须翻一番. Sultan Al Jaber说过 被称为 for the doubling of efficiency on numerous occasions in the past few months as part of the first pillar of the COP28 plan, “加快能源转型”. 
3. 石油和天然气公司必须采取措施，致力于实现气候目标, 包括到2030年将甲烷排放量大幅减少75%. 这是近期限制气候变暖的成本最低的机会之一, 并以国家层面的甲烷承诺为基础. 的 COP28 Presidency is driving efforts to secure commitments from oil and gas companies to reduce scope 1 and 2 emissions, 重点关注20家左右的石油和天然气生产商的甲烷排放 在积极会谈中 加入这个倡议.  
4. 创新, large-scale financing mechanisms to triple clean energy investments in emerging and developing economies. Advanced economies and financial institutions need to develop mechanisms to facilitate the clean energy transition in emerging markets and developing countries. Discussions are well underway, with progress in the World Bank and IMF meetings earlier in October. 世界银行行长Ajay Banga说 宣布 plans to open up more concessional lending for projects that achieve global goals like climate change action and plans to open up the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency to other development banks, 这一举措将帮助他们动员更多的私营部门资金. 
5. Governments agree to take measures for an orderly decline in fossil fuel use and agree to no new unabated fossil fuel plants. 一些国家在缔约方会议谈判中的立场也反映了这一点, 与欧盟 同意 “在2050年之前”推动全球能源部门“以无化石能源为主”, 没有新的煤电空间. 同样，非洲集团的COP28谈判代表 想要 developed countries to stop greenlighting new fossil fuel production projects by 2030 and India’s 提交 to the Global Stocktake outlines that “developed countries should have already peaked their emissions and must be on their way to becoming net negative, 发展中国家的峰值将在晚些时候到来。”. 

企业的角色  

化石燃料的动态变化, 预计在2030年之前达到峰值, 强调企业重新评估其能源战略的必要性. Fatih Birol warned businesses that “larger-scale fossil fuel investments” not only posed a “risk for our climate but also have some business risks as the world may not need an increase of oil production”. 与《正规博彩十大网站》的1.5度的目标, businesses should prioritize reducing their reliance on fossil fuels and consider ramping up their investments in renewables, 投资节能措施, 碳的减少和去除.  

国际能源署强调了发展中经济体在能源转型中的关键作用. This provides a vast market for technology and service providers that can offer sustainable solutions to meet the rising energy demand in these regions. 企业在开发和提供创新方面发挥着关键作用, large-scale financing mechanisms to facilitate clean energy investments in emerging and developing economies, 支持公私伙伴关系. Collaborative efforts with advanced economies and financial institutions can pave the way for cleaner energy solutions in these markets. 的 最近的一项协议 with nine multilateral development banks to collaborate more closely with the private sector is a step in the right direction.   

It’s estimated that around 60% of the required financing for clean energy investments in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) (outside China) will need to come from the private sector, 总额为0元.9-1.从目前的1350亿美元大幅增加到2030年代初的每年1万亿美元.   

管理清洁能源技术和关键矿物的供应链依赖关系, 多元化和创新是必不可少的战略. Investments are rising globally in the exploration and production of critical minerals such as lithium, 钴, 镍, 还有稀土, although the dominance of the top three producing countries in 2022 has remained relatively stable or increased compared to 2019 levels. 促进创新的配套政策, 矿物替代, and recycling are critical in addressing demand and reducing market pressures while also bolstering critical minerals security. 

通过与政策制定者接触并倡导支持性法规, 企业可以发挥关键作用:支持转型的政策立场, 特别是当它们跨越多个行业和部门时, 能代表监管变革的重要驱动力吗. 这包括支持制定长期方向的呼吁，如将可再生能源产能提高两倍, 能源效率加倍, 雄心勃勃的甲烷减排, and innovative financing for clean energy in emerging markets ahead of milestone moments like COP28. 

更具体的行动载于水务署的《正规博彩十大网站》 在这里.